{"code":"25894","sect":"Columns","sect_slug":"columns","hits":"683","link":"http:\/\/elfaro.net\/en\/202112\/columns\/25894","link_edit":"","name":"Central America Needs Democracy Accords","slug":"central-america-needs-democracy-accords","info":"","mtag":"Politics","noun":{"html":"Lucas Perell\u00f3","data":{"lucas-perello":{"sort":"","slug":"lucas-perello","path":"lucas_perello","name":"Lucas Perell\u00f3","edge":"0","init":"0"}}},"view":"683","pict":{"cms-image-000036794-jpg":{"feat":"1","sort":"36794","name":"cms-image-000036794.jpg","link":"http:\/\/elfaro.net\/images\/cms-image-000036794.jpg","path":"http:\/\/elfaro.net\/images\/cms-image-000036794.jpg","back":"","slug":"cms-image-000036794-jpg","text":"<p>\"The people's jubilee for achieving peace,\" reads one of the posters placed outside the San Salvador Cathedral on January 16, 1992, marking the celebration of the end of the war and the signing of the Chapultepec Peace Accords. Photograph taken by ex-guerilla fighter Guillermo Alfredo Olivares, who passed away in 2009. The signs document the widespread distrust in the signing government's willingness to uphold the historic agreement.<\/p>","capt":"\u003Cp\u003E\"The people's jubilee for achieving peace,\" reads one of the posters placed outside the San Salvador Cathedral on January 16, 1992, marking the celebration of the end of the war and the signing of the Chapultepec Peace Accords. Photograph taken by ex-guerilla fighter Guillermo Alfredo Olivares, who passed away in 2009. The signs document the widespread distrust in the signing government's willingness to uphold the historic agreement.\u003C\/p\u003E"}},"pict_main__sort":36794,"date":{"live":"2021\/12\/09"},"data_post_dateLive_YY":"2021","data_post_dateLive_MM":"12","data_post_dateLive_DD":"09","text":"\u003Cp id=\"docs-internal-guid-4529655c-7fff-85cf-9154-81406be86545\" dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn the waning years of the Cold War, few expected democracy to survive in Central America, let alone thrive. Bloody military dictators, Marxist insurgencies, entrenched poverty and inequality, and the lack of previous experience with democracy seemingly posed too great a challenge.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EYet, by the start of the 2000s, democracy began to flourish on the isthmus. Competitive elections saw former civil war rivals trade power peacefully, with civil societies demanding greater accountability from their governments. In some cases, once-powerful politicians like El Salvador\u2019s Antonio Saca and Nicaragua\u2019s Arnoldo Alem\u00e1n ended up behind bars for corruption (although the latter \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/01\/17\/world\/americas\/17briefs-EXLEADERSSEN_BRF.html\"\u003Ehad his sentence lifted\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThen, as if in some sinister d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu, Central America's democratic ills came roaring back. Today, democracy in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras hangs by a thread. Nicaragua, in turn, is just as authoritarian as Cuba or Venezuela.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThe downside of democratic pacts\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ECentral America's democratic progress in the 1990s and 2000s came with a Catch-22. The more familiar the region's political elites became with democratic institutions, the better they got at gaming the system. Elites became experts at forging under-the-table pacts to divide the spoils of government and protect their vested interests.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E \u003Cfigure class=\"pict pict_land pict_move_posc 0 cs_img cs_img--curr rule--ss_c\" data-shot=\"pict\" data-hint=\"pict\"\u003E \u003Cdiv class=\"pict__pobj text-overflow\"\u003E\u003Cimg src=https:\/\/elfaro.net\/get_img?ImageWidth=940&ImageHeight=635&ImageId=36794 class=\"pobj\" style=\"max-width: 100%\" rel=\"resizable\" alt=\"\"The people's jubilee for achieving peace,\" reads one of the posters placed outside the San Salvador Cathedral on January 16, 1992, marking the celebration of the end of the war and the signing of the Chapultepec Peace Accords. Photograph taken by ex-guerilla fighter Guillermo Alfredo Olivares, who passed away in 2009. The signs document the widespread distrust in the signing government's willingness to uphold the historic agreement.\" \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cfigcaption class=\"pict__text cs_img_caption folk_content typo_buttons line--ss_s0c line--ss_s0c--auto block full-width text-overflow rule--ss_l relative\"\u003E \u003Cdiv class=\"__content block-inline full-width align-top tint-text--idle relative\"\u003E \"The people's jubilee for achieving peace,\" reads one of the posters placed outside the San Salvador Cathedral on January 16, 1992, marking the celebration of the end of the war and the signing of the Chapultepec Peace Accords. Photograph taken by ex-guerilla fighter Guillermo Alfredo Olivares, who passed away in 2009. The signs document the widespread distrust in the signing government's willingness to uphold the historic agreement. \u003Cdiv class=\"photographer text_italic rule--ss_l tint-text--idle\"\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E \u003C\/figcaption\u003E \u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn Nicaragua, leftist ex-rebel leader Daniel Ortega \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/nacla.org\/article\/strange-bedfellows-aleman-ortega-pact\"\u003Eteamed up\u003C\/a\u003E with his long-time conservative rival to undermine institutions. He then returned to power, packed institutions, and locked up virtually all his opponents ahead of November's \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/nicaragua-president-ortega-wins-4th-term-in-sham-election\/a-59745207\"\u003Esham elections\u003C\/a\u003E \u2014 effectively becoming Latin America's newest dictator.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EHonduras\u2019s traditional political rivals forged a pact to oust President Manuel Zelaya in a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/06\/29\/world\/americas\/29honduras.html\"\u003E2009 coup\u003C\/a\u003E, only to entrench strongman Juan Orlando Hern\u00e1ndez. Hern\u00e1ndez's regime oversaw widespread corruption, growing ties with \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/magazine\/2021\/11\/15\/is-the-president-of-honduras-a-narco-trafficker\"\u003Edrug trafficking\u003C\/a\u003E cartels, and the dramatic erosion of democratic institutions. Although leftist Xiomara Castro\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/11\/30\/world\/americas\/honduras-election-castro.html\"\u003Edefeated\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0the autocratic incumbent National Party in November's election, her victory is no guarantee for democratization.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn El Salvador,\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2021\/05\/12\/central-america-rule-of-law-under-attack-el-salvador-nicaragua-guatemala-honduras\/\"\u003Evoters\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0fed up with pact-making and corruption among traditional parties took their chances on Nayib Bukele, a political maverick who has since leveraged high popularity to weaken checks and balances. Many\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/el-salvador-has-put-its-hopes-in-a-37-year-old-independent-president-so-should-we\/2019\/02\/05\/137201d6-297a-11e9-b011-d8500644dc98_story.html\"\u003Epraised\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0Bukele as the face of hope, as he openly\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.univision.com\/noticias\/america-latina\/bukele-los-llamo-dictadores-maduro-y-ortega-pierden-un-aliado-en-centroamerica\"\u003Ecriticized\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0the authoritarian drift in Honduras and Nicaragua. Yet, in February of 2020, Bukele\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/the-americas\/2020\/02\/13\/el-salvadors-president-summons-the-army-to-bully-congress\"\u003Eordered\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0the military to enter the Legislative Assembly to pressure legislators to pass his security plan. The move was one of many power grabs that have become the norm since his party,\u00a0Nuevas Ideas, won the legislative \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2021\/03\/02\/el-salvador-legislative-assembly-election-nuevas-ideas-nayib-bukele-fmln-arena-corruption\/\"\u003Eelections\u003C\/a\u003E by a landslide earlier this year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn Guatemala, former President Jimmy Morales \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/08\/31\/world\/americas\/guatemala-corruption-commission-morales.html\"\u003Edismantled\u003C\/a\u003E the CICIG, a renowned UN-backed anti-graft commission. Alejandro Giammattei, his successor since 2020, has continued the attack against those who seek to curb corruption, as evidenced by the firing of\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"\/en\/202107\/centroamerica\/25626\/Interview-with-a-Former-Prosecutor-en-Route-to-Exile-%E2%80%9CI-can-now-say-that-everything-Porras-has-done-is-shady%E2%80%9D.htm\"\u003EJuan Francisco Sandoval\u003C\/a\u003E, the Public Ministry's Special Prosecutor Against Impunity, who in July had to seek exile in the United States.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThe impasse in Washington\u003C\/strong\u003E\u00a0\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EAs Central America's democratic crises have brewed, Washington has not been a passive observer, nor can it afford to be. Under backsliding governments, problems that have long plagued the region \u2014 poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and criminal violence \u2014 grew worse, triggering a spiraling \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/central-america-caribbean\/2021-04-13\/real-migration-crisis-central-america\"\u003Emigrant crisis\u003C\/a\u003E on the U.S.-Mexico border.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EEager to avoid a repeat of past U.S. overreach, the Obama administration trod lightly. It\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-honduras-usa-sb\/obama-says-coup-in-honduras-is-illegal-idUKTRE55S5J220090629\"\u003Econdemned\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0the military coup that ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya but refrained from using its diplomatic muscle to reimpose him. President Obama cut \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/blog\/nicaraguans-lose-62-million-in-assistance-as-ortega-stands-firm-in-defending-flawed-elections\/\"\u003Efunding\u003C\/a\u003E to small international assistance programs as Ortega dismantled Nicaraguan democracy but shied away from applying conditionality to larger funding packages or vetoing multilateral loans. Diplomatic and financial assistance propped up anti-corruption commissions, which did valiant work, but assistance also flowed to security forces alleged to have committed human rights abuses.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThen came the Trump presidency. The message was clear: if Central American governments could block the flow of people and narcotics northwards, the administration would turn a blind eye as the elites dismantled democratic institutions. Except partly for\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov\/briefings-statements\/president-donald-j-trump-pressuring-nicaraguan-regime-restore-democracy-rule-law\/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wh\"\u003ENicaragua\u003C\/a\u003E, the Trump administration disregarded backsliding in the region. Central America's democratic crises kicked into overdrive, free from Washington's scrutiny. Governments chipped away at democracy by co-opting institutions, persecuting the opposition often into exile, rigging elections, and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/guatemala\/2018-06-06\/guatemalas-fight-against-corruption-under-threat\"\u003Eshuttering\u003C\/a\u003E anti-graft commissions.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThe Biden administration has made clear it will not replicate Trump's transactional diplomacy, as evidenced by \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/exclusive-us-targets-central-america-officials-possible-sanctions-over-2021-05-05\/\"\u003Edozens\u003C\/a\u003E of newly targeted sanctions to thwart corruption and de-democratization. However, it is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/05\/opinion\/us-sanctions-venezuela.html\"\u003Eless clear\u003C\/a\u003E what sanctions, on their own, can accomplish. That's why now is the time for a policy shift.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ESupporting a new round of \"Democracy Accords\"\u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EOn December 9 and 10, President Biden is\u00a0\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/summit-for-democracy\/\"\u003Ehosting\u003C\/a\u003E\u00a0the \"Summit for Democracy.\" Whereas his administration is taking a step in the right direction, it remains unclear how the summit will allow countries suffering from democratic backsliding or authoritarianism to reverse their dire situations.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EUnderstandably, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua failed to make the list of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/participant-list-the-summit-for-democracy\/\"\u003Einvitees\u003C\/a\u003E. But ostracizing those countries will not make them less authoritarian and more democratic.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EInstead, the administration should consider inviting rival parties\u2014including incumbents, opposition blocs, civil society, and the private sector\u2014to pursue a series of multilateral \"Democracy Accords.\" The talks would chart concrete steps towards restoring competitive elections, checks and balances, and the rule of law. Washington could encourage follow-through by tying completion of these steps to the gradual lifting of sanctions and providing additional incentives.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThe talks would also provide a platform to push for reform of Central America's multilateral institutions. The Central American Integration System and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration, mandated with deepening political and economic cooperation, have kept silent as democracies unraveled, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/theglobalamericans.org\/2021\/11\/what-to-expect-from-the-nicaraguan-elections\/\"\u003Elending a lifeline\u003C\/a\u003E to the region's strongmen more than once. As the Inter-American \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.oas.org\/en\/democratic-charter\/Default.asp\"\u003EDemocratic Charter\u003C\/a\u003E has largely failed to prevent backsliding in the region, Central American countries could agree on minimum democratic conditions for membership and actions to take if governments turn authoritarian.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EBetting on a new set of accords might sound naively idealistic. Dialogues failed to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-honduras\/honduras-crisis-talks-end-in-failure-idUSN1749101420090719\"\u003Erestore democracy\u003C\/a\u003E to Honduras after its 2009 coup or \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/americas_vatican-envoy-nicaraguan-government-says-talks-concluded\/6173077.html\"\u003Eredress\u003C\/a\u003E Ortega's 2018 deadly crackdown. And human rights abusers have done nothing to deserve a seat at the table.\u00a0\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EBut we shouldn't forget: Central America broke through a seemingly impossible impasse before. Against the odds, the region \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1987\/11\/06\/world\/central-american-peace-accord-goes-into-effect.html\"\u003Ecame together\u003C\/a\u003E in the 1980s to sign the Esquipulas Peace Agreements, also known as the Central American Peace Accords. The accords set up the framework for ending decades-long civil wars and established democratic ground rules.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ETrue, in the years afterward, elites hijacked institutions. But this time around, there is the benefit of hindsight, plus a U.S. administration committed to investing resources in the re-democratization. The story isn't destined to repeat itself.\u00a0\u00a0\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EA new round of Democracy Accords is worth attempting. If Central America could exit the war-torn 1980s through negotiations, it could surprise the world once more.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003ELucas Perell\u00f3 is a visiting assistant professor of international studies at Marymount Manhattan College. Follow him on Twitter \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/lucas_perello\"\[email protected]_perello\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E"}