{"code":"26411","sect":"Central America","sect_slug":"central-america","hits":"1204","link":"https:\/\/elfaro.net\/en\/202209\/centroamerica\/26411","link_edit":"","name":"Who Will Inherit Giammattei\u2019s Power in Guatemala?","slug":"who-will-inherit-giammattei-rsquo-s-power-in-guatemala-","info":"Guatemala, in Brief: Nine months before the presidential election, the right wing that rules the country is fracturing into rivaling projects as progressive groups discuss the elusive idea of a united candidacy. Electoral authorities are indulging pre-campaigning by the ruling party and top conservative Zury R\u00edos, but sanctioned left-wing Indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera for retweeting the words \u201cplurinational state.\u201d Subscribe to our newsletter","mtag":"Newsletter","noun":{"html":"\u003Cspan class='tint-text--dark' data_href='\/user\/profile\/rgressier'\u003E Roman Gressier\u003C\/span\u003E","data":{"roman-gressier":{"sort":"rgressier","slug":"roman-gressier","path":"roman_gressier","name":"Roman Gressier","edge":"0","init":"0"}}},"view":"1204","pict":{"cms-image-000038056-jpg":{"feat":"1","sort":"38056","name":"cms-image-000038056.jpg","link":"https:\/\/elfaro.net\/images\/cms-image-000038056.jpg","path":"https:\/\/elfaro.net\/images\/cms-image-000038056.jpg","back":"","slug":"cms-image-000038056-jpg","text":"<p>Guatemalan President and Army Commander in Chief Alejandro Giammattei (C) observes a military parade during a ceremony in Guatemala City, on January 15, 2020. (Photo by ORLANDO ESTRADA \/ AFP)<\/p>","capt":"\u003Cp\u003EGuatemalan President and Army Commander in Chief Alejandro Giammattei (C) observes a military parade during a ceremony in Guatemala City, on January 15, 2020. (Photo by ORLANDO ESTRADA \/ AFP)\u003C\/p\u003E"}},"pict_main__sort":38056,"date":{"live":"2022\/10\/04"},"data_post_dateLive_YY":"2022","data_post_dateLive_MM":"10","data_post_dateLive_DD":"04","text":"\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ESince the 1996 Peace Accords, no Guatemalan party has won consecutive presidencies. It\u2019s just what President Alejandro Giammattei, secretary general of Vamos, hopes to accomplish in the elections set for June \u2014 even though he won\u2019t be on the ballot.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EDespite having an approval rating of under \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/la-hora\/2022\/07\/23\/giammattei-empata-en-el-ultimo-lugar-en-encuesta-de-desempeno-de-cid-gallup\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003E20 percent\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, rivaled in the hemisphere only by Peru\u2019s Pedro Castillo, the president has made a special effort to repeatedly appear at public events with congressman Manuel Conde, widely viewed as the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.soy502.com\/articulo\/elecciones-2023-cronica-carrera-politica-iniciada-100931\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eanointed candidate\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EConde, 65, who came in eleventh place in the 2007 presidential elections with the PAN party, aligned with Vamos in 2020 and has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/concriterio.gt\/manuel-conde-un-politico-opaco-en-tarima-pero-util-tras-bambalinas\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Esupported legislation\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E appealing to the military and to conservative Christians, like the bill proposed in September 2021 \u201cagainst \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.congreso.gob.gt\/assets\/uploads\/info_legislativo\/iniciativas\/c2f38-5940.pdf\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Egender identity disorders\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u201d.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ETo bolster Conde\u2019s candidacy, in recent months Giammattei, the man behind prison-or-exile lawfare against independent prosecutors who investigated his 2019 campaign on \u003Ca href=\"\/en\/202202\/centroamerica\/26008\/Witness-Accuses-Guatemalan-President-of-Funding-Campaign-with-Construction-Bribes.htm\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eallegations of illicit finance\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, has unveiled a string of public works projects like a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/fatima\/2022\/08\/31\/diputados-aliados-al-oficialismo-adelantan-su-apoyo-al-presupuesto-2023\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Epublic hospital in Izabal\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E and has \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/fatima\/2022\/08\/26\/giammattei-a-alcaldes-tenemos-que-seguir-fortaleciendo-sus-finanzas\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eincreased 2023 funding to mayors\u2019 offices\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EVamos is also expanding its ranks by \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/elperiodico.com.gt\/politica\/justicia\/2022\/09\/23\/vamos-convoca-para-proclamar-a-su-binomio-presidencial\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eabsorbing ex-members of UCN\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, a party tarnished by drug trafficking ties that was annulled in January. Construction firms tied to this party have \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/elperiodico.com.gt\/noticias\/investigacion\/2022\/04\/25\/gobierno-beneficia-con-q312-millones-a-constructorasde-aliados-de-ucn-1\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Ereceived 312 million quetzales\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E ($40 million) in contracts from the current administration.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u201cGiammattei is campaigning and the TSE lacks the courage to apply the law,\u201d Jorge Mario Valenzuela, TSE president from 2016 to 2017, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/concriterio.gt\/giammattei-hace-campana-y-al-tse-le-falta-caracter-para-aplicar-la-ley\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Etold radio station ConCriterio\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, citing the use of partisan color palettes at government events and infrastructure projects.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ECampaigning is prohibited before election season in January, but that hasn\u2019t stopped Vamos from holding rallies \u2014 like one in July, when Giammattei\u2019s closest confidant, Miguel Mart\u00ednez, poised to run for Congress, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/mariajose\/2022\/07\/17\/tse-no-responde-por-actividad-de-jefe-de-jefes-de-martinez-vamos\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Esang the Tigres del Norte anthem, \u201cJefe de Jefes\u201d\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ER\u00edos Montt\u2019s long shadow\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EGiammattei\u2019s main adversary comes from the same right wing. Polling in the past three months suggests that the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/republica.gt\/politica\/zury-rios-es-la-politica-mas-popular-en-guatemala-segun-encuesta-que-mide-a-toda-america-latina-202272613530\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Emost popular politician in Guatemala\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E is Zury R\u00edos, a four-term legislator from 1996 to 2012 and daughter of General Efra\u00edn R\u00edos Montt, the former dictator convicted in 2013 of genocide in the early 1980s against the Maya Ixil people.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ER\u00edos stayed at her father\u2019s side in court. In an \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.elfaro.net\/es\/201304\/noticias\/11767\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Einterview with El Faro\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E a month before the conviction, she justified military \u201cexcesses\u201d by arguing that Guatemala \u201cwould have become Managua, La Habana, or Venezuela,\u201d and denied the charges for image reasons: \u201cWe would be unable for generations to shake the stigma of being considered a genocidal country.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EWhile R\u00edos\u2019 party, Valor, has voted with Giammattei in Congress, her tone is changing as the electoral season approaches.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u201cThe crisis of the pandemic revealed the problems of our public health and education systems, and of course corruption has robbed the public of schools, housing, and medicine,\u201d she said in a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ZuryxGuate\/status\/1569136210525753344?s=20&t=xq8NaG0Qvyd-X16E-49QAw\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Evideo posted to Twitter\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E on Sep. 11. In a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/concriterio.gt\/zury-rios-en-guatemala-matan-a-20-personas-al-dia-el-salvador-lo-ha-sabido-resolver\/\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eprevious post in July\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, she nodded to Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele\u2019s state of exception, calling it a \u201cmodel of reference.\u201d Election authorities have said nothing of these apparent campaign ads.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn 2015 and 2019 the Supreme Electoral Tribunal expelled her from the race, citing a prohibition of the office for the offspring of coup presidents. This May, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights issued a settlement agreement between R\u00edos and the Guatemalan state, arguing that the prohibition \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.oas.org\/en\/IACHR\/jsForm\/?File=\/en\/iachr\/media_center\/PReleases\/2022\/090.asp\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eviolated her rights\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, setting the stage for a legal showdown next year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EOther Vamos-aligned politicians have begun to position themselves, like congresswoman and perennial presidential hopeful Sandra Torres, from UNE, which claims to be left-of-center and holds 33 of 160 seats in Congress, the most of any party. Torres, who had her 2019 bid dashed largely by lack of support in the capital, would face added hurdles given that UNE is split in two factions and is fighting cancellation for illicit campaign finance.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EAlso purportedly in the mix is Roberto Arz\u00fa, the son of arch-conservative \u00c1lvaro Arz\u00fa, who was president from 1996 to 1999 and later mayor of Guatemala City for 14 years. Having the most dynastic family name in Guatemala wasn\u2019t enough to propel Roberto past fifth place in the 2019 presidential race.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EBig-tent opposition?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThe Supreme Electoral Tribunal hasn\u2019t said anything about Giammattei and R\u00edos courting the public ahead of campaign season, but it did issue a warning in August to Maya Mam politician Thelma Cabrera, who came in fourth place in the 2019 presidential race with the left-wing People\u2019s Liberation Movement (MLP).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ThelmaCabreraP2\/status\/1555274010375720960\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003EIn their notification\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, electoral authorities pointed to a hashtag on one of the cited posts. It read, #EstadoPlurinacionalGt \u2014 a call for the creation of a \u201c\u003Ca href=\"\/en\/202108\/centroamerica\/25638\/Guatemala-Tries-to-Repeat-the-2015-Uprising-against-Corruption.htm\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Eplurinational state\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EWhom the Supreme Electoral Tribunal chooses to sanction, or even allow to run, is a major question facing the electoral season. Only after officials banned the candidacies of his two leading rivals, R\u00edos and now-exiled former Attorney General Thelma Aldana, did Giammattei take the presidency in 2019.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn a country dominated by parties close to religious conservatives and the military, it\u2019s also unclear whether groups of other political stripes who have joined protests against Giammattei \u2014leftists, progressive university students, Indigenous authorities, anti-corruption activists\u2014 can negotiate a big-tent opposition front and settle on a candidate who can survive to the August run-off.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u201cThere\u2019s a wide range of progressive parties and movements. They have to recognize that they failed before because they were divided,\u201d said former human rights ombudsman Jord\u00e1n Rodas, who fled the country in August but says he plans to return for a presidential or congressional run in 2023, \u003Ca href=\"\/en\/202209\/centroamerica\/26395\/%E2%80%9CIf-the-elections-are-clean-a-progressive-victory-is-possible-in-Guatemala%E2%80%9D.htm\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Ein a September 22 interview with El Faro\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThree opposition parties \u2014Semilla, Winaq, and the former guerilla party URNG\u2014 have agreed to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BArevalodeLeon\/status\/1576746922672500736?s=20&t=RvP1DrZEG0EskKNZ8AnsOg\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Epropose joint mayoral candidates\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, but not yet for the presidential race.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003E\u201cIt\u2019s difficult for there to be an electoral alliance on the Left because the main group, the MLP, will not ally itself with anyone,\u201d asserted political analyst Gustavo Berganza to El Faro English. \u201cThey are following their own project. Their candidate is already traveling the country and has name recognition,\u201d he added, in an allusion to Cabrera.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn recent months the MLP \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.soy502.com\/articulo\/elecciones-2023-cronica-carrera-politica-iniciada-100931\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Erejected the offer\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E from Semilla, Winaq, and the URNG for a municipal alliance, proclaiming itself \u201cradical and anti-system.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EIn the last year, electoral alliances \u2014or the lack thereof\u2014 have made or broken elections in Central America. Last November the Nicaraguan opposition factions \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/mailchi.mp\/elfaro.net\/el-faro-english-nicaraguan-opposition-house-divided-6212836?e=3e101df639\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Efailed to propose a single candidate\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E against Ortega, partly over differences on religious matters and sexual and gender diversity.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003EThat same month in Honduras, it was an \u003Ca href=\"\/en\/202110\/centroamerica\/25791\/Game-Changing-Electoral-Alliance-in-Honduras.htm\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003Euncomfortable electoral alliance\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E between Xiomara Castro and Salvador Nasralla, leader of a party he named after himself, Salvador de Honduras (\u201cSavior of Honduras\u201d), that delivered her the presidency.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003ENow in Guatemala and El Salvador, opposition groups have begun mulling over united fronts against authoritarianism and corruption, despite the fact that they have never been more corralled and weakened than they are now.\u003C\/p\u003E"}